Virsliga17:00VirsligaVIP
Super Nova
vs
Grobiņa
Super Nova vs Grobiņa Prediction
Final scoreSuper Nova 2 – 1 Grobiņa
Pick: 1 - Home Win✓ Prediction correct
Next meetingTo be announced — no fixture scheduled yet between Super Nova and Grobiņa.
AI recommended bet
1 - Home Win
Odds
1.75
Confidence
68%
Predicted score
2-0
Prediction summary
We are backing Super Nova to secure a home victory as they face a struggling Grobiņa side that has failed to beat them in their last five attempts.
Why we like this pick
- Super Nova won all three previous league encounters against Grobiņa in 2026 without conceding.
- Grobiņa has managed only one victory in their last ten matches, losing six times.
- The visitors possess the league's weakest attack, failing to score in 15 of 31 games.
Tactical analysis
Super Nova typically employs a pragmatic approach, focusing on defensive stability which has resulted in three consecutive clean sheets against this specific opponent. Grobiņa tends to struggle when forced to chase the game, often leaving gaps in transition. Expect the home side to control the tempo while the visitors rely on rare counter-attacking opportunities that have yielded just 0.7 goals per game this season.
Super Nova form
Super Nova currently sits 6th in the Virsliga with 35 points and a solid defensive record at home. They have maintained a balanced recent form, securing four wins and two draws in ten games.
Grobiņa form
Grobiņa occupies 8th place and has struggled significantly on the road, conceding 22 goals in their last ten outings. With a goal difference of -31, their defensive vulnerabilities are a major concern.
Why the model expects this outcome
The model favors the home side due to the overwhelming H2H dominance and Grobiņa's inability to find the net. The statistical gap in goal production and defensive organization makes a home win the most probable outcome.
Goal output (xG proxy)
Super Nova's superior defensive efficiency of 1.3 goals conceded per game should easily withstand a Grobiņa attack averaging under one goal.
Risk factors
- Grobiņa securing a low-scoring draw similar to their two 0-0 results in 2025.
- Super Nova failing to break down a deep defensive block despite their territorial advantage.
Confidence explanation
Confidence is high due to historical trends, though Super Nova's own scoring inconsistency slightly caps the rating.
Final verdict
Super Nova should continue their winning streak in this fixture; please remember to gamble responsibly.
Key match statistics
Super Nova
vs
Grobiņa
Form (last 5)
WinDrawLoss
Super Nova
DLLWW
Grobiņa
LLLDL
#6
League position
#8
1.00
Goals / match
0.70
1.30
Goals against / match
1.70
8
Clean sheets
7
8
Failed to score
15
AI league insights
Average confidence
70%
Average odds
1.96
Value picks
1
Odds ≥ 2.00 and confidence ≥ 60%
Confidence distribution
n=5Low · 1
Medium · 1
High · 3
Home / Draw / Away split
n=0n=0
Top bet types
- 1 - Home Win2 · 40%
- 2 - Away Win2 · 40%
- X - Draw1 · 20%
Standings
| # | Club | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rīgas FS | 30 | 23 | 5 | 2 | +49 | 74 | DWDWD |
| 2 |  Riga | 31 | 22 | 7 | 2 | +56 | 73 | WWDDL |
| 3 |  Auda | 31 | 18 | 7 | 6 | +19 | 61 | DWDWD |
| 4 |  FK Liepaja | 31 | 12 | 7 | 12 | -2 | 43 | DDDWL |
| 5 |  BFC Daugavpils | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 0 | 39 | DLDLD |
| 6 | Super Nova | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | -11 | 35 | LLWWD |
| 7 |  FS Jelgava | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | -17 | 32 | LDLWW |
| 8 | Grobiņa | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -31 | 26 | DDLWL |
| 9 |  Tukums | 31 | 5 | 9 | 17 | -17 | 24 | DLWLL |
| 10 |  Ogre United | 31 | 4 | 6 | 21 | -46 | 18 | WLDLL |
Last 5 head-to-head
- 2026-07-20Super Nova2-0Grobiņa
- 2026-05-20Grobiņa0-2Super Nova
- 2026-04-09Grobiņa0-1Super Nova
- 2025-10-18Grobiņa0-0Super Nova
- 2025-07-26Super Nova0-0Grobiņa
All meetings
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 October 2026 at 16:00 | Virsliga | Super Nova vs Grobiņa | 2 : 1 |
| 20 July 2026 at 19:00 | Virsliga | Super Nova vs Grobiņa | 2 : 0 |
Prediction reviews
Matchup hit rate: 100% (2/2 settled tips correct)
- Correct
Super Nova 2 : 1 Grobiņa
10 October 2026 at 16:00 · Virsliga
Pick: 1 - Home WinOdds: 1.75Confidence: 68% - Correct
Super Nova 2 : 0 Grobiņa
20 July 2026 at 19:00 · Virsliga
Pick: Under 2.5 GoalsOdds: 2.15Confidence: 45%
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Plzen
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