Eredivisie15:30EredivisieVIP
Excelsior
vs
Groningen
Excelsior vs Groningen Prediction
Final scoreExcelsior 1 – 5 Groningen
Pick: Over 2.5 Goals✓ Prediction correct
Next meetingTo be announced — no fixture scheduled yet between Excelsior and Groningen.
AI recommended bet
Over 2.5 Goals
Odds
1.75
Confidence
62%
Predicted score
2-1
Prediction summary
Excelsior host Groningen with both sides averaging over two goals per game, making a high-scoring encounter the most likely outcome at Woudestein.
Why we like this pick
- Both teams have identical 2.1 goals-per-game scoring averages over their first seven matches.
- Excelsior have found the net in 100% of their league fixtures so far this season.
- Groningen concede an average of 1.9 goals away, highlighting significant defensive vulnerabilities in their setup.
Tactical analysis
With both teams showing high efficiency in front of goal and struggles to keep clean sheets—only three combined in 14 games—this match should be played at a high tempo. Excelsior likely will use their home advantage to press high, while Groningen's 1.9 goals conceded average suggests they will rely on counter-attacks. The midfield transition zones will be crucial as both sides prioritize offensive volume over defensive solidity.
Excelsior form
Excelsior sit 7th in the Eredivisie, having secured 11 points through a balanced start to the campaign. Their attack is firing effectively, evidenced by a substantial 28 goals across their last 10 matches.
Groningen form
Groningen are level with their hosts on 11 points but occupy 8th due to an inferior goal difference. Their recent form has dipped with two consecutive losses overshadowing their early unbeaten run.
Why the model expects this outcome
The model favors a high-scoring outcome because neither side has shown the ability to shut down clinical attacks. Given that Excelsior scored three times in the most recent head-to-head meeting, the goal line looks undervalued.
Goal output (xG proxy)
The combined scoring rate of 4.2 goals per match suggests a highly volatile game where defensive structures often break down.
Risk factors
- A cautious tactical approach due to both teams sitting on identical points totals.
- Groningen replicating their previous 2-0 defensive masterclass shown in two of the last four meetings.
Confidence explanation
Confidence is tempered by Groningen's unpredictable away form and the fact that both teams are currently tied in the standings.
Final verdict
Expect an open game with at least three goals scored; please gamble responsibly.
Key match statistics
Excelsior
vs
Groningen
Form (last 5)
WinDrawLoss
Excelsior
LWWWW
#7
League position
#8
2.10
Goals / match
2.10
1.30
Goals against / match
1.90
2
Clean sheets
1
0
Failed to score
0
AI league insights
Average confidence
71%
Average odds
1.71
Value picks
1
Odds ≥ 2.00 and confidence ≥ 60%
Confidence distribution
n=6Low · 1
Medium · 2
High · 3
Home / Draw / Away split
n=0n=0
Top bet types
- 2 - Away Win4 · 67%
- Over 2.5 Goals1 · 17%
- 1 - Home Win1 · 17%
Standings
| # | Club | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +20 | 20 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +16 | 19 | WLWWW |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 | LWDWW |
| 4 |  Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 17 | DWWWD |
| 5 |  Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +12 | 15 | DDWWL |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 | DWLWW |
| 7 | Excelsior | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 11 | DLDWW |
| 8 | Groningen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 11 | WDDLL |
| 9 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 11 | DDDDL |
| 10 |  Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | LWDLD |
| 11 |  NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 | DDLDL |
| 12 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 | DLLDL |
| 13 |  Telstar | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 | LDLDL |
| 14 | Cambuur | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 5 | DWDLL |
| 15 |  Utrecht | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -13 | 5 | LWDLD |
| 16 |  PEC Zwolle | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -14 | 4 | LLDLW |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 2 | DLLDL |
| 18 |  Willem II | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -14 | 2 | LLDLD |
Last 5 head-to-head
- 2026-05-02Groningen2-3Excelsior
- 2025-12-05Excelsior0-2Groningen
- 2024-01-16Excelsior0-2Groningen
- 2023-02-25Groningen3-0Excelsior
- 2023-01-08Excelsior1-0Groningen
All meetings
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 October 2026 at 17:45 | Eredivisie | Excelsior vs Groningen | 1 : 5 |
Prediction reviews
Matchup hit rate: 100% (1/1 settled tips correct)
- Correct
Excelsior 1 : 5 Groningen
11 October 2026 at 17:45 · Eredivisie
Pick: Over 2.5 GoalsOdds: 1.75Confidence: 62%
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