Primera Nacional21:00Primera NacionalVIP
Gimnasia Y Tiro
vs
Atletico DE Rafaela
Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atletico DE Rafaela Prediction
Final scoreGimnasia Y Tiro 1 – 0 Atletico DE Rafaela
Pick: 1 - Home Win✓ Prediction correct
Next meetingTo be announced — no fixture scheduled yet between Gimnasia Y Tiro and Atletico DE Rafaela.
AI recommended bet
1 - Home Win
Odds
1.95
Confidence
62%
Predicted score
1-0
Prediction summary
We are backing Gimnasia Y Tiro to secure a home victory due to their superior defensive record and strong recent form at the Estadio El Gigante del Norte.
Why we like this pick
- Gimnasia Y Tiro have won 6 of their last 10 matches, showing much greater consistency.
- The visitors have failed to score in 12 of their 30 league fixtures this season.
- The home side currently sits 5th in the table, three points clear of their opponents.
Tactical analysis
This matchup features two defensively oriented sides, evidenced by a combined 26 clean sheets this season. Gimnasia Y Tiro will likely control the tempo at home, forcing a low-block from Rafaela. Expect a cagey affair where a single goal in the second half probably decides the outcome, as both teams prioritize structural integrity over expansive attacking play.
Gimnasia Y Tiro form
Gimnasia Y Tiro sit comfortably in 5th place with 45 points and a positive goal difference. Their home form is reliable, having secured six wins and two draws in their last ten outings.
Atletico DE Rafaela form
Atletico DE Rafaela occupies 8th position and struggles for offensive consistency, averaging just 0.8 goals per game. Their away record shows three losses and three draws across their previous ten matches.
Why the model expects this outcome
The model favors the home side because their 1.1 goals per match average outweighs Rafaela's poor conversion rate. Despite a tight H2H history, Gimnasia's superior league standing and home-field advantage provide the edge needed for a narrow win.
Goal output (xG proxy)
With both teams averaging under one goal conceded per game, the statistical output points toward a very low-scoring encounter.
Risk factors
- A scoreless draw is a high probability given Rafaela's 15 clean sheets this season.
- Atletico DE Rafaela won the most recent H2H encounter 1-0 in May 2026.
Confidence explanation
High clean sheet percentages for both clubs lower the confidence in a high-margin victory or frequent scoring.
Final verdict
Gimnasia Y Tiro should edge this contest in a low-scoring game; please remember to gamble responsibly.
Key match statistics
Gimnasia Y Tiro
vs
Atletico DE Rafaela
Form (last 5)
WinDrawLoss
Gimnasia Y Tiro
DWWWW
Atletico DE Rafaela
DWDWL
#5
League position
#8
1.10
Goals / match
0.80
0.90
Goals against / match
0.90
11
Clean sheets
15
8
Failed to score
12
AI league insights
Average confidence
54%
Average odds
2.00
Value picks
1
Odds ≥ 2.00 and confidence ≥ 60%
Confidence distribution
n=18Low · 11
Medium · 6
High · 1
Home / Draw / Away split
n=0n=0
Top bet types
- Under 2.5 Goals12 · 67%
- 1 - Home Win5 · 28%
- 2 - Away Win1 · 6%
Standings
Group 1
| # | Club | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ferro Carril Oeste | 31 | 18 | 7 | 6 | +11 | 61 | WWDDD |
| 2 |  Deportivo Moron | 31 | 16 | 7 | 8 | +18 | 55 | LLWWW |
| 3 |  Godoy Cruz | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | +12 | 52 | WWWWL |
| 4 |  Deportivo Madryn | 31 | 13 | 11 | 7 | +16 | 50 | DWLWL |
| 5 |  Colon Santa Fe | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | +13 | 49 | DWLLL |
| 6 |  Almirante Brown | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | +5 | 46 | LLDDW |
| 7 |  CA Estudiantes | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +3 | 45 | WWWLD |
| 8 |  Ciudad de Bolívar | 31 | 10 | 12 | 9 | -2 | 42 | WLDLW |
| 9 |  Los Andes | 31 | 9 | 13 | 9 | +3 | 40 | WLDDD |
| 10 |  Chaco For Ever | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | -3 | 36 | LWDWD |
| 11 |  Defensores De Belgrano | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | -4 | 36 | LWWDW |
| 12 |  Racing Cordoba | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | -10 | 35 | LLLWD |
| 13 |  San Telmo | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | -9 | 34 | WLWDL |
| 14 |  All Boys | 31 | 6 | 15 | 10 | -9 | 33 | DDLWD |
| 15 |  Central Norte | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | -9 | 32 | DLDDD |
| 16 |  Atletico Mitre | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | -12 | 32 | LLDDD |
| 17 |  San Miguel | 31 | 6 | 13 | 12 | -11 | 31 | LDDLL |
| 18 |  Acassuso | 31 | 7 | 8 | 16 | -12 | 29 | WWLLD |
Group 2
| # | Club | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tristan Suarez | 31 | 15 | 12 | 4 | +17 | 57 | WDDDW |
| 2 | Temperley | 31 | 14 | 11 | 6 | +11 | 53 | LWDWW |
| 3 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +9 | 53 | DWWDD |
| 4 |  Atlanta | 31 | 16 | 4 | 11 | +7 | 52 | WDWWL |
| 5 |  Midland | 31 | 13 | 8 | 10 | +8 | 47 | LWWLL |
| 6 | Gimnasia Y Tiro | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | +4 | 45 | LDWWL |
| 7 |  San Martin S.J. | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +3 | 45 | LWDLW |
| 8 |  Deportivo Maipu | 31 | 12 | 8 | 11 | +7 | 44 | WDDDL |
| 9 |  Colegiales | 31 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 43 | WLWLW |
| 10 | Atletico DE Rafaela | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 42 | WLLWD |
| 11 |  San Martin Tucuman | 30 | 9 | 12 | 9 | +2 | 39 | LWLDW |
| 12 |  Quilmes | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | +3 | 38 | WLWLL |
| 13 |  Nueva Chicago | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | -6 | 36 | WDLWL |
| 14 |  Agropecuario | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | -9 | 36 | LWLWD |
| 15 |  Almagro | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 35 | LLDLW |
| 16 |  Patronato | 31 | 6 | 16 | 9 | -4 | 34 | WDDDL |
| 17 |  Chacarita Juniors | 31 | 8 | 6 | 17 | -10 | 30 | LWLLL |
| 18 |  Club Atlético Güemes | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | -30 | 23 | LLLLD |
Last 5 head-to-head
- 2026-05-09Atletico DE Rafaela1-0Gimnasia Y Tiro
- 2024-07-06Atletico DE Rafaela0-0Gimnasia Y Tiro
- 2024-02-18Gimnasia Y Tiro1-0Atletico DE Rafaela
All meetings
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 September 2026 at 00:00 | Primera Nacional | Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atletico DE Rafaela | 1 : 0 |
Prediction reviews
Matchup hit rate: 100% (1/1 settled tips correct)
- Correct
Gimnasia Y Tiro 1 : 0 Atletico DE Rafaela
28 September 2026 at 00:00 · Primera Nacional
Pick: 1 - Home WinOdds: 1.95Confidence: 62%
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